Bellwether: Will News 10’s poll results accurately predict the next president?


VIGO COUNTY, Ind. (WTHI) – When we think of Storm Team 10 Meteorologist Kevin Orpurt, we think of the guy in the bow-tie who predicts the weather.

But we gave Kevin a little bit of a different assignment.

We sent him out to work on a different kind of prediction…the prediction that Vigo County voters make election after election.

We’ve historically predicted the outcome of every presidential race (except two, we got Theodore Roosevelt wrong in 1908 and Dwight Eisenhower wrong in 1952) since 1888.

Now, we’ve heard from all of the pundits and officials about why they believe that happens, but Kevin wanted to hit the streets and ask people why they think Vigo County is so accurate.

Here are some of the responses we received:

“Maybe they’ve just got a variety of people here.”

“I have no idea, really. It could be luck, or maybe everybody here votes the same.”

“I’m not really sure. I couldn’t really tell you. In my opinion, it’s probably just a coincidence.”

“If it’s a coincidence I don’t know. It’s just kind of odd that the thing holds true, but it has.”

“Maybe more people take voting seriously. I don’t…I really don’t know…I can’t even imagine.”

“The population seems to be very balanced here. And so probably has very successfully predicted who will be the next president…as a microcosm.”

“It’s got to be the water. The water. We got a new water treatment center. It’s gotta be the water.”

“Why? It’s all over the country that Vigo County elects the president, but there have not been any surveys.”

Good idea! We thought of that too…let’s have a survey.

Over the past several weeks, News 10 has been working on one. It was an online poll asking who you plan to vote for in this year’s presidential election.

Our web team was able to separate the votes from Vigo County from the votes that came in from the rest of the Wabash Valley.

We received a total of 558 votes from Vigo County. Here are the results:

Donald Trump: 308  Poll results
Hillary Clinton: 195
Gary Johnson: 41
Jill Stein: 14

So, in this unscientific poll of Vigo County, Donald Trump brought home the most votes and the presidency.

If you scroll back up, you’ll see we received a lot of different theories.

Very soon, we will learn if Vigo County’s streak will continue.