TERRE HAUTE, Ind. (WTHI) – While it’s mid November and some of you are getting super pumped for that first snow of the season, as per usual, the internet is getting the jump on some early snowcasting.
But, before you click share on that article, make sure you’re getting the information from a verified weather source.
On Thursday, Storm Team 10 started getting questions about snow developing on Saturday! Wait, what? Snow, already? Let’s face it, the internet is right a lot of time, but some social media forecasters will make a mountain out of a molehill.
In this particular case, it appears that social media is taking one weather information source and treating it as the only weather source. Why? Because it says snow and the internet knows that you’re ready to talk about how much you either A) love it and want it, or B) can’t stand it and want it to be summer again.
But here’s where the internet weather predictions can be troublesome.
Say, for example, you have a bag of 10 brand new red apples. You get home from the store and start taking them out of the bag to sit them in a dish on your kitchen table. While you’re doing this, you decide you’re a bit hungry, so you start looking for one to eat. Out of those 10 brand new red apples, one of them is rotten. Then, for some strange reason, that’s the one you decide to eat! That’s even after the other 9 are perfectly delicious and edible.
That’s what’s happening with some of the internet prediction information.
Forecasters are focusing on only one line of thinking — the one that tells the most extreme story. For example, here is one computer-generated idea on the weekend snow event; which has the snow dodging our area completely. Some internet sources are using maps like this, that suggest a very, very slight amount of snow and spreading the information across southern Indiana! With that in mind, there are several sources, just like the one below:
So, about that weekend snow?
An area of strong low pressure will drift northeast through the Dakotas, over Wisconsin and into Canada for the weekend. A cold front is leading the charge ahead of the low pressure. That combination will kick up scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon and should clear the area by late Friday night.
Here’s the catch, the idea that’s catching on with the internet. A bit of wrap around moisture from the Friday’s rain could mix up in some cooler air in the mid-layers of the atmosphere and make flurries. All this, as a pocket of colder upper air shoves in behind the front. With colder air at the surface and colder air support in the upper atmosphere, obviously, you have the right equation for any liquid moisture to turn into a solid moisture.
That said, the majority of the available moisture will be moving east northeast out the state when this happens.
Here are a few things to think about:
-Yes snowflakes or flurries are possible early Saturday morning but most of them look to dodge the Wabash Valley. Could a strong northerly wind blow a few our way? Absolutely.
-If they do happen, the Earth’s surface is still too warm for any of it too stick.